Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Luxembourg vs Kazakhstan — Friendlies 2026

Luxembourg
Luxembourg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
D. Sinani 45'
G. Rodrigues 24'
A. Sadybekov 2'
3/26/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Stade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Luxembourg45%
×Draw26%
Kazakhstan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg
1.46
Kazakhstan
1.13

Luxembourg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Luxembourg
0.78
Kazakhstan
0.92

allows per match

Luxembourg
1.33
Kazakhstan
2.15

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par
Kazakhstan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Kazakhstan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw
71%
Luxembourg or Kazakhstan
74%
Draw or Kazakhstan
55%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+
22%
Kazakhstan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals
77%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
43%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
18%
Kazakhstan 1+ goals
68%
Kazakhstan 2+ goals
31%
Kazakhstan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)
60%
Kazakhstan (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Kazakhstan away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.78 + Kazakhstan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kazakhstan attack 0.92 + Luxembourg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Luxembourg scores more
45%
level
26%
Kazakhstan scores more
29%

Luxembourg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. Sadybekov
24'
G. Rodrigues
41'
Lars Gerson
45'
D. Sinani
54'
Maksim Samorodov
64'
E. Muratović← M. Olesen
64'
S. Thill← Y. Borges Sanches
67'
I. Kuat← A. Tagybergen
67'
I. Chesnokov← M. Samorodov
67'
Y. Vorogovskiy← R. Asrankulov
75'
E. Astanov← R. Orazov
75'
A. Aymbetov← B. Zaynutdinov
77'
S. Korač← F. Bohnert
77'
D. Jonathans← D. Sinani
78'
Erkin Tapalov
78'
B. Kairov← E. Tapalov
82'
Islam Chesnokov
87'
A. Dardari← G. Rodrigues
90+2'
Abat Aimbetov

Possession

65%Luxembourg

Shots

14Luxembourg

Statistics

LuxembourgKazakhstan
Overview
65%Possession35%
14Total Shots7
7Corners2
12Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots7
5On Target2
4Off Target3
5Blocked2
Passing
65%Possession35%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls13
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Luxembourg vs Kazakhstan

Luxembourg beat Kazakhstan 2-1 in Friendlies on March 26, 2024.

Goals: A. Sadybekov (2'), G. Rodrigues (24'), D. Sinani (45').

Luxembourg controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade de Luxembourg in Luxembourg.