Luxembourg 2–2 Hungary: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Luxembourg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hungary

A. Curci 77'

G. Rodrigues 7' (pen)

A. Németh 67'

A. Szalai 25'

11/17/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Luxembourg30%

×Draw27%

Hungary43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchHungary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.33

Luxembourg

1.06

Hungary

1.33

Hungary creates 25% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

0.78

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Luxembourg

0.78

Hungary

1.33

allows per match

Luxembourg

1.33

Hungary

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Hungary+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Hungary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw

57%

Luxembourg or Hungary

73%

Draw or Hungary

70%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+

11%

Hungary wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals

65%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

29%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

9%

Hungary 1+ goals

74%

Hungary 2+ goals

38%

Hungary 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

41%

Hungary (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Hungary away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.78 + Hungary defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hungary attack 1.33 + Luxembourg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luxembourg scores more

30%

level

27%

Hungary scores more

43%

Hungary at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hungary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Dénes Dibusz

7'

G. RodriguesPenalty

24'

25'

33'

46'

46'

58'

58'

58'

59'

67'

71'

A. Curci← Y. Borges Sanches

77'

A. Curci↳ G. Rodrigues

78'

P. Baráth← Á. Nagy

78'

E. Botka← A. Fiola

85'

Callum Styles

87'

Z. Kalmár← D. Szoboszlai

90+2'

T. Rupil← G. Rodrigues

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LuxembourgHungary

Overview

43%Possession57%

5Total Shots11

1Corners9

12Fouls14

Shots

5Total Shots11

3On Target4

1Off Target5

1Blocked2

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Friendlies: Luxembourg 2–2 Hungary

Luxembourg and Hungary drew 2-2 in Friendlies on November 17, 2022.

Goals: G. Rodrigues (7' pen), A. Szalai (25'), A. Németh (67'), A. Curci (77').

Hungary controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade de Luxembourg in Luxembourg.

Luxembourg vs Hungary — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Friendlies: Luxembourg 2–2 Hungary