Luxembourg 2–2 Faroe Islands: Result & Stats

Luxembourg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Faroe Islands

L. Barreiro 49'

G. Rodrigues 12' (pen)

J. Bjartalíð 59', 56'

6/14/2022

UEFA Nations League · League C - 4Stade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Luxembourg51%

×Draw28%

Faroe Islands21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchFaroe Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.74

Luxembourg

1.33

Faroe Islands

0.74

Luxembourg creates 80% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.31

creates per match

0.64

0.85

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Luxembourg

1.31

Faroe Islands

0.64

allows per match

Luxembourg

0.85

Faroe Islands

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Faroe Islands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw

79%

Luxembourg or Faroe Islands

72%

Draw or Faroe Islands

49%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+

24%

Faroe Islands wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals

74%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

38%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

15%

Faroe Islands 1+ goals

52%

Faroe Islands 2+ goals

17%

Faroe Islands 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

71%

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 1.31 + Faroe Islands defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Faroe Islands attack 0.64 + Luxembourg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Luxembourg scores more

51%

level

28%

Faroe Islands scores more

21%

Luxembourg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Bjartalíð

Faroe Islands · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

G. RodriguesPenalty

46'

C. Martins← L. Gerson

46'

J. Símun Edmundsson← K. Olsen

49'

L. Barreiro↳ M. Pinto

56'

J. Bjartalíð

59'

J. Bjartalíð↳ M. Olsen

60'

R. Baldvinsson← H. Vatnsdal

67'

M. Deville← F. Bohnert

68'

Y. Borges Sanches← S. Thill

71'

Gerson Rodrigues

73'

Á. Jónsson← M. Olsen

75'

S. Ikene← M. Chanot

89'

M. Mikkelsen← J. Bjartalíð

89'

H. Hansen← G. Rólantsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LuxembourgFaroe

Overview

63%Possession37%

14Total Shots10

1Corners6

4Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots10

4On Target6

8Off Target3

2Blocked1

13Inside Box9

1Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

519Total Passes300

457Accurate Passes241

88%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

4Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2