Luxembourg 0–4 Austria: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Luxembourg

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Austria

L. Schaub 84'

M. Gregoritsch 59'

F. Grillitsch 39'

M. Arnautović 4'

3/27/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Josy Barthel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Luxembourg17%

×Draw27%

Austria56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchAustria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.68

1.45

Luxembourg

0.68

Austria

1.45

Austria creates 113% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

0.78

creates per match

1.57

1.33

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Luxembourg

0.78

Austria

1.57

allows per match

Luxembourg

1.33

Austria

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Austria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–117%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw

44%

Luxembourg or Austria

73%

Draw or Austria

83%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+

5%

Austria wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals

49%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

15%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

3%

Austria 1+ goals

77%

Austria 2+ goals

42%

Austria 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

24%

Austria (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Austria away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.78 + Austria defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.68

Austria attack 1.57 + Luxembourg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Luxembourg scores more

17%

level

27%

Austria scores more

56%

Austria at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Arnautović↳ S. Prödl

34'

Moritz Bauer

34'

Sebastian Prödl

39'

F. Grillitsch

46'

M. Deville← D. Turpel

46'

E. Mahmutovic← K. Malget

58'

Daniel Alves da Mota← M. Jänisch

59'

M. Gregoritsch↳ M. Arnautović

62'

L. Schaub← F. Kainz

62'

A. Schöpf← V. Lazaro

63'

A. Skenderovic← L. Barreiro

65'

X. Schlager← J. Baumgartlinger

67'

Aleksandar Dragović

68'

S. Hierländer← M. Arnautović

69'

Daniel da Mota

71'

Enes Mahmutovic

75'

G. Burgstaller← M. Gregoritsch

76'

D. Sinani← V. Thill

81'

P. Zulj← F. Grillitsch

84'

L. Schaub↳ P. Zulj

89'

Guido Burgstaller

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LuxembourgAustria

Overview

40%Possession60%

2Total Shots8

5Corners0

18Fouls16

Shots

2Total Shots8

1On Target7

1Off Target1

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Friendlies: Luxembourg 0–4 Austria

Austria beat Luxembourg 4-0 in Friendlies on March 27, 2018.

Goals: M. Arnautović (4'), F. Grillitsch (39'), M. Gregoritsch (59'), L. Schaub (84').

Austria controlled possession (60%) and registered 8 shots to 2.

The match was played at Josy Barthel in Luxembourg.

Luxembourg vs Austria — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Friendlies: Luxembourg 0–4 Austria