Luxembourg 2–1 Albania: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Luxembourg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Albania

6/4/2017

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Stade Josy Barthel (Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Luxembourg35%

×Draw30%

Albania36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchAlbania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.06

Luxembourg

1.04

Albania

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

0.78

creates per match

0.80

1.33

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Luxembourg

0.78

Albania

0.80

allows per match

Luxembourg

1.33

Albania

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Albania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Albania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw

64%

Luxembourg or Albania

70%

Draw or Albania

65%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+

13%

Albania wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals

65%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

28%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

9%

Albania 1+ goals

65%

Albania 2+ goals

29%

Albania 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

49%

Albania (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Albania away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.78 + Albania defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Albania attack 0.80 + Luxembourg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Luxembourg scores more

35%

level

30%

Albania scores more

36%

Albania at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Albania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff