Luxembourg U19 vs Slovenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Luxembourg U1934%
Slovenia U1941%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Slovenia U19 creates 12% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Luxembourg U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Luxembourg U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches
Slovenia U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Luxembourg U19 attack 1.00 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31
Slovenia U19 attack 1.06 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.47
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Slovenia U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Slovenia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Luxembourg U19 substitutes
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Liechtenstein U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Luxembourg U19 host Slovenia U19 on Tuesday, 14 October 2025 at 10:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
Match Recap: Luxembourg U19 vs Slovenia U19
Slovenia U19 beat Luxembourg U19 4-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 14, 2025.
Goals: A. Tavares dos Santos (9'), D. Pejicic (20', 59'), M. Acimovic (63'), B. Adrovic (81').