Luxembourg U19 1–1 North Macedonia U19

Luxembourg U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

North Macedonia U19

F. Domingos 45+3'

D. Danev 8'

10/15/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Luxembourg U1942%

×Draw24%

North Macedonia U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luxembourg U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.41

Luxembourg U19

1.60

North Macedonia U19

1.41

Luxembourg U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

1.88

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Luxembourg U19

1.00

North Macedonia U19

0.93

allows per match

Luxembourg U19

1.88

North Macedonia U19

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Luxembourg U19 or draw

66%

Luxembourg U19 or North Macedonia U19

76%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

58%

Winning margin

Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+

21%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Luxembourg U19 1+ goals

80%

Luxembourg U19 2+ goals

47%

Luxembourg U19 3+ goals

22%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

76%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

41%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)

55%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.00 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.93 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Luxembourg U19 scores more

42%

level

24%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

34%

Luxembourg U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Luxembourg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

D. Danev

34'

C. Andrade Brites← T. Leßing

39'

S. Mladenovski← N. Manojlov

45'

A. Ljubevski

45+3'

F. Domingos

46'

G. Krstevski← A. Ljubevski

51'

D. Ristovski← M. Sinani

57'

A. da Silva

67'

A. Latifi← J. Boshnakov

67'

V. Islami← A. Podgradja

72'

A. Ljatifi

75'

77'

79'

82'

83'

85'

86'

E. Thelen← L. Nürenberg

90+5'

A. Meliqi

Luxembourg

North

17

▼

1

6

5

3

2

▼

Ljubevski

10

▼

Manojlov

16

▼

Sinani

8

Gashtarov

20

▼

Boshnakov

7

⚽

12

2

4

3

▼

Leßing

19

Silva

6

Sabotic

7

▼

Hoxha

18

Pinheiro

10

Duarte

9

▼

Nürenberg

11

⚽

Domingos

Manager: M. Mutsch

34'▲C. Andrade Brites←▼T. Leßing

79'▲A. Qevani←▼F. Hoxha

86'▲E. Thelen←▼L. Nürenberg

Luxembourg U19 substitutes

17Brites20Qevani5Thelen14Giesteira1Azemi13Foutey15Sever8Desurmont

Manager: V. Stanojković

39'▲S. Mladenovski←▼N. Manojlov

46'▲G. Krstevski←▼A. Ljubevski

51'▲D. Ristovski←▼M. Sinani

67'▲A. Latifi←▼J. Boshnakov

67'▲V. Islami←▼A. Podgradja

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

9Mladenovski13Krstevski4Ristovski19Latifi18Islami12Hadzhibulikj11Elmas15Ajetovikj14Sinanov