Luxembourg U19 1–4 Denmark U19: Result & Stats

Luxembourg U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Denmark U19

A. Dardari 20'

O. Ross 82'

F. Bundgaard 80', 78'

Z. Sertdemir 14'

3/28/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Luxembourg U1915%

×Draw19%

Denmark U1966%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luxembourg U19Expected goals in this matchDenmark U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

2.19

Luxembourg U19

0.92

Denmark U19

2.19

Denmark U19 creates 138% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

2.50

1.88

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Luxembourg U19

1.00

Denmark U19

2.50

allows per match

Luxembourg U19

1.88

Denmark U19

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Denmark U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg U19 ↓

Denmark U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Luxembourg U19 or draw

34%

Luxembourg U19 or Denmark U19

81%

Draw or Denmark U19

85%

Winning margin

Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+

5%

Denmark U19 wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Luxembourg U19 1+ goals

60%

Luxembourg U19 2+ goals

23%

Luxembourg U19 3+ goals

7%

Denmark U19 1+ goals

89%

Denmark U19 2+ goals

64%

Denmark U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Denmark U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.00 + Denmark U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Denmark U19 attack 2.50 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Luxembourg U19 scores more

15%

level

19%

Denmark U19 scores more

66%

Denmark U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Z. Sertdemir

20'

A. Dardari

37'

G. Mortensen

46'

R. Berberi← L. Elshan

46'

F. Bundgaard← M. Enggård

51'

V. Byskov← Z. Sertdemir

61'

O. Ross← A. Lyng

61'

S. Andersen← K. Barslund

69'

S. Ikene← M. Fernandes

74'

78'

80'

82'

82'

82'

83'

P. Sousa Rodrigues← F. Lohei

83'

S. Turping← J. Videira

88'

T. Flick← A. Dardari

89'

J. Meyer← P. Texel

Luxembourg

Denmark

1

Lykke

3

Fischer

2

▼

Texel

5

Mortensen

15

Andersen

4

▼

Barslund

6

▼

Enggård

8

⚽

▼

Sertdemir

17

▼

20

19

1

2

20

10

▼

Elshan

8

⚽

▼

Dardari

14

Afonso

4

▼

Fernandes

15

Agostinel

3

▼

Lohei

9

▼

Videira

17

Souchard

Manager: M. Mutsch

46'▲R. Berberi←▼L. Elshan

69'▲S. Ikene←▼M. Fernandes

83'▲P. Sousa Rodrigues←▼F. Lohei

83'▲S. Turping←▼J. Videira

88'▲T. Flick←▼A. Dardari

Luxembourg U19 substitutes

18Berberi5Ikene13Rodrigues7Turping19Flick12Welbes6Oliveira

Manager: J. Olsen

46'▲F. Bundgaard←▼M. Enggård

51'▲V. Byskov←▼Z. Sertdemir

61'▲O. Ross←▼A. Lyng

61'▲S. Andersen←▼K. Barslund

89'▲J. Meyer←▼P. Texel

Denmark U19 substitutes

10Bundgaard18Byskov9Ross7Andersen13Meyer11Nouck14Ejdum12Dorgu16Sander

Match Recap: Luxembourg U19 vs Denmark U19

Denmark U19 beat Luxembourg U19 4-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2023.

Goals: Z. Sertdemir (14'), A. Dardari (20'), F. Bundgaard (78', 80'), O. Ross (82').

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.

Luxembourg U19 vs Denmark U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Luxembourg U19 vs Denmark U19