Luxembourg U19 0–2 Azerbaijan U19: Result & Stats

Luxembourg U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Azerbaijan U19

11/16/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Stade am Petz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Luxembourg U1950%

×Draw22%

Azerbaijan U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luxembourg U19Expected goals in this matchAzerbaijan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.35

Luxembourg U19

1.91

Azerbaijan U19

1.35

Luxembourg U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.82

1.88

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Luxembourg U19

1.00

Azerbaijan U19

0.82

allows per match

Luxembourg U19

1.88

Azerbaijan U19

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Azerbaijan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg U19 ↓

Azerbaijan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Luxembourg U19 or draw

73%

Luxembourg U19 or Azerbaijan U19

78%

Draw or Azerbaijan U19

50%

Winning margin

Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+

29%

Azerbaijan U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Luxembourg U19 1+ goals

85%

Luxembourg U19 2+ goals

57%

Luxembourg U19 3+ goals

30%

Azerbaijan U19 1+ goals

74%

Azerbaijan U19 2+ goals

39%

Azerbaijan U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Azerbaijan U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Azerbaijan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.00 + Azerbaijan U19 defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

Azerbaijan U19 attack 0.82 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luxembourg U19 scores more

50%

level

22%

Azerbaijan U19 scores more

27%

Luxembourg U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luxembourg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff