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Luxembourg U17 vs Slovenia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Luxembourg U17
Luxembourg U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovenia U17
Slovenia U17
10/21/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Sportski Centar Fudbalskog saveza Srbije

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Luxembourg U1733%
×Draw24%
Slovenia U1742%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg U17
1.38
Slovenia U17
1.58

Slovenia U17 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

creates per match

Luxembourg U17
1.40
Slovenia U17
2.07

allows per match

Luxembourg U17
1.10
Slovenia U17
1.36

finishing

Luxembourg U17+0.00on par
Slovenia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg U17 ↓

Slovenia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Luxembourg U17 or draw
58%
Luxembourg U17 or Slovenia U17
76%
Draw or Slovenia U17
67%

Winning margin

Luxembourg U17 wins by 2+
15%
Slovenia U17 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Luxembourg U17 1+ goals
75%
Luxembourg U17 2+ goals
40%
Luxembourg U17 3+ goals
16%
Slovenia U17 1+ goals
79%
Slovenia U17 2+ goals
47%
Slovenia U17 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg U17 (draw refunded)
44%
Slovenia U17 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg U17 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Slovenia U17 away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg U17 attack 1.40 + Slovenia U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Slovenia U17 attack 2.07 + Luxembourg U17 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Luxembourg U17 scores more
33%
level
24%
Slovenia U17 scores more
42%

Slovenia U17 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovenia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Luxembourg U17 1–1 Slovenia U17

Luxembourg U17 and Slovenia U17 drew 1-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Fudbalskog saveza Srbije in Stara Pazova.