Luxembourg U17 5–0 Liechtenstein U17

Luxembourg U17

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Liechtenstein U17

J. Gomes Rodrigues 75'

C. Alves Macedo 68'

K. Nascimento 66' (pen)

C. Elombo 61' (pen)

S. Moreira 49'

4/25/2026

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Luxembourg U1791%

×Draw6%

Liechtenstein U172%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luxembourg U17Expected goals in this matchLiechtenstein U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.80

0.55

Luxembourg U17

3.80

Liechtenstein U17

0.55

Luxembourg U17 creates 591% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.40

creates per match

0.00

1.10

allows per match

6.21

creates per match

Luxembourg U17

1.40

Liechtenstein U17

0.00

allows per match

Luxembourg U17

1.10

Liechtenstein U17

6.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg U17+0.00on par

Liechtenstein U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg U17 ↓

Liechtenstein U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Luxembourg U17 or draw

98%

Luxembourg U17 or Liechtenstein U17

94%

Draw or Liechtenstein U17

9%

Winning margin

Luxembourg U17 wins by 2+

78%

Liechtenstein U17 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Luxembourg U17 1+ goals

98%

Luxembourg U17 2+ goals

88%

Luxembourg U17 3+ goals

70%

Liechtenstein U17 1+ goals

42%

Liechtenstein U17 2+ goals

11%

Liechtenstein U17 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg U17 (draw refunded)

97%

Liechtenstein U17 (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg U17 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Liechtenstein U17 away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg U17 attack 1.40 + Liechtenstein U17 defence 6.21 → ÷2 → 3.80

Liechtenstein U17 attack 0.00 + Luxembourg U17 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Luxembourg U17 scores more

91%

level

6%

Liechtenstein U17 scores more

2%

Luxembourg U17 at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Luxembourg U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Gomes Rodrigues← M. Soares Delgado

46'

S. Moreira← J. Rock

49'

S. Moreira↳ K. Nascimento

56'

T. Charaka← E. Memaj

57'

L. Dunser← E. Wolf

61'

C. ElomboPenalty

64'

E. Taveira← T. Martins

65'

C. Alves Macedo← C. Elombo

66'

K. NascimentoPenalty

68'

C. Alves Macedo↳ J. Gomes Rodrigues

70'

T. Geraldes← K. Nascimento

72'

A. Matheis← N. Kessler

75'

J. Gomes Rodrigues↳ S. Moreira

79'

81'

81'

89'

Luxembourg

Liechtenstein

1

3

15

2

7

▼

Tuncay

10

▼

Wolf

6

▼

Kessler

18

▼

Nobile

8

Gunsch

9

▼

19

1

5

4

3

18

▼

Rock

2

Rolo

15

Mehlen

11

⚽A

▼

Nasciment

8

▼

Delgado

9

⚽

▼

Elombo

10

▼

Martins

Manager: D. Zirbes

46'▲J. Gomes Rodrigues←▼M. Soares Delgado

46'▲S. Moreira←▼J. Rock

64'▲E. Taveira←▼T. Martins

65'▲C. Alves Macedo←▼C. Elombo

70'▲T. Geraldes←▼K. Nascimento

Luxembourg U17 substitutes

12Gillen6Taveira7Rodrigues13Macedo14Carreira16Geraldes17Moreira19Sakalic20Osmanovic

Manager: D. Alge

56'▲T. Charaka←▼E. Memaj

57'▲L. Dunser←▼E. Wolf

72'▲A. Matheis←▼N. Kessler

81'▲E. Matt←▼L. Nobile

81'▲R. Russo←▼A. Tuncay

Liechtenstein U17 substitutes

12Heitz4Dunser11Charaka13Bolt14Jahiu16Matheis17Matt20Russo