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Luxembourg U17 vs Azerbaijan U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Luxembourg U17
Luxembourg U17
FT
3 – 0
Azerbaijan U17
Azerbaijan U17
10/12/2021UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Stade Leburton

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Luxembourg U1763%
×Draw20%
Azerbaijan U1717%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg U17
2.08
Azerbaijan U17
0.98

Luxembourg U17 creates 112% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Luxembourg U17
1.40
Azerbaijan U17
0.85

allows per match

Luxembourg U17
1.10
Azerbaijan U17
2.77

finishing

Luxembourg U17+0.00on par
Azerbaijan U17+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg U17 ↓

Azerbaijan U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Luxembourg U17 or draw
83%
Luxembourg U17 or Azerbaijan U17
80%
Draw or Azerbaijan U17
37%

Winning margin

Luxembourg U17 wins by 2+
39%
Azerbaijan U17 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Luxembourg U17 1+ goals
87%
Luxembourg U17 2+ goals
61%
Luxembourg U17 3+ goals
34%
Azerbaijan U17 1+ goals
62%
Azerbaijan U17 2+ goals
26%
Azerbaijan U17 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg U17 (draw refunded)
79%
Azerbaijan U17 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg U17 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Azerbaijan U17 away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg U17 attack 1.40 + Azerbaijan U17 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.08

Azerbaijan U17 attack 0.85 + Luxembourg U17 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Luxembourg U17 scores more
63%
level
20%
Azerbaijan U17 scores more
17%

Luxembourg U17 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Luxembourg U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luxembourg U17 vs Azerbaijan U17

Luxembourg U17 beat Azerbaijan U17 3-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Leburton in Tubize.