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Luxembourg-Porto vs Victoria Rosport — Cup 2020

Luxembourg-Porto
Luxembourg-Porto
FT
2 – 5
Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport
10/18/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain 2 Cessange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Luxembourg-Porto21%
×Draw18%
Victoria Rosport61%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg-Porto
1.49
Victoria Rosport
2.59

Victoria Rosport creates 74% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Luxembourg-Porto
1.60
Victoria Rosport
2.38

allows per match

Luxembourg-Porto
2.80
Victoria Rosport
1.38

finishing

Luxembourg-Porto+0.00on par
Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg-Porto ↓

Victoria Rosport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Luxembourg-Porto or draw
39%
Luxembourg-Porto or Victoria Rosport
82%
Draw or Victoria Rosport
79%

Winning margin

Luxembourg-Porto wins by 2+
9%
Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Luxembourg-Porto 1+ goals
77%
Luxembourg-Porto 2+ goals
44%
Luxembourg-Porto 3+ goals
19%
Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
92%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
73%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg-Porto (draw refunded)
26%
Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg-Porto at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg-Porto attack 1.60 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.49

Victoria Rosport attack 2.38 + Luxembourg-Porto defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Luxembourg-Porto scores more
21%
level
18%
Victoria Rosport scores more
61%

Victoria Rosport at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luxembourg-Porto vs Victoria Rosport

Victoria Rosport beat Luxembourg-Porto 5-2 in Cup on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Terrain 2 Cessange in Cessange.