Luxembourg-Porto 4–3 Koeppchen: Result & Stats

Luxembourg-Porto

4 – 3

Koeppchen

9/9/2020

Cup · 1st RoundTerrain 2 Cessange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Luxembourg-Porto17%

×Draw15%

Koeppchen68%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luxembourg-PortoExpected goals in this matchKoeppchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

3.40

Luxembourg-Porto

1.70

Koeppchen

3.40

Koeppchen creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

4.00

2.80

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Luxembourg-Porto

1.60

Koeppchen

4.00

allows per match

Luxembourg-Porto

2.80

Koeppchen

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg-Porto+0.00on par

Koeppchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg-Porto ↓

Koeppchen →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–34%

0–44%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Luxembourg-Porto or draw

32%

Luxembourg-Porto or Koeppchen

85%

Draw or Koeppchen

83%

Winning margin

Luxembourg-Porto wins by 2+

Koeppchen wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Luxembourg-Porto 1+ goals

82%

Luxembourg-Porto 2+ goals

51%

Luxembourg-Porto 3+ goals

24%

Koeppchen 1+ goals

96%

Koeppchen 2+ goals

84%

Koeppchen 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg-Porto (draw refunded)

20%

Koeppchen (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg-Porto at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Koeppchen away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg-Porto attack 1.60 + Koeppchen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.70

Koeppchen attack 4.00 + Luxembourg-Porto defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Luxembourg-Porto scores more

17%

level

15%

Koeppchen scores more

68%

Koeppchen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Koeppchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff