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Luverdense vs Juventude MA — Serie D 2018

Luverdense
Luverdense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Juventude MA
Juventude MA
10/14/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Luverdense40%
×Draw31%
Juventude MA29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luverdense
1.09
Juventude MA
0.88

Luverdense creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

Luverdense
1.05
Juventude MA
1.00

allows per match

Luverdense
0.76
Juventude MA
1.13

finishing

Luverdense+0.00on par
Juventude MA+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luverdense ↓

Juventude MA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Luverdense or draw
71%
Luverdense or Juventude MA
69%
Draw or Juventude MA
60%

Winning margin

Luverdense wins by 2+
16%
Juventude MA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luverdense 1+ goals
66%
Luverdense 2+ goals
30%
Luverdense 3+ goals
10%
Juventude MA 1+ goals
59%
Juventude MA 2+ goals
22%
Juventude MA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Luverdense (draw refunded)
58%
Juventude MA (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luverdense at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Juventude MA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luverdense attack 1.05 + Juventude MA defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Juventude MA attack 1.00 + Luverdense defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luverdense scores more
40%
level
31%
Juventude MA scores more
29%

Luverdense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Luverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luverdense vs Juventude MA

Juventude MA beat Luverdense 2-0 in Serie D on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú in Sinop, Mato Grosso.