Luverdense 3–1 Aparecidense: Result & Stats

Luverdense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aparecidense

Bruninho 76'

Raul Prata 68'

Felipinho 56'

Dyego 63'

Enzo 33'

6/7/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 8Passo das Emas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Luverdense35%

×Draw31%

Aparecidense33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuverdenseExpected goals in this matchAparecidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.96

Luverdense

1.00

Aparecidense

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 41 away

1.00

creates per match

1.20

0.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Luverdense

1.00

Aparecidense

1.20

allows per match

Luverdense

0.73

Aparecidense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luverdense+0.00on par

Aparecidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luverdense ↓

Aparecidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Luverdense or draw

67%

Luverdense or Aparecidense

69%

Draw or Aparecidense

65%

Winning margin

Luverdense wins by 2+

13%

Aparecidense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Luverdense 1+ goals

63%

Luverdense 2+ goals

26%

Luverdense 3+ goals

8%

Aparecidense 1+ goals

62%

Aparecidense 2+ goals

25%

Aparecidense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Luverdense (draw refunded)

52%

Aparecidense (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luverdense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 22 matches

Aparecidense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luverdense attack 1.00 + Aparecidense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Aparecidense attack 1.20 + Luverdense defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Luverdense scores more

35%

level

31%

Aparecidense scores more

33%

Luverdense at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Luverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Enzo

56'

Felipinho

63'

Dyego

67'

Dyego

68'

Raul Prata

76'

Bruninho

Luverdense

Aparecidense

Manager: W. Lopes

Manager: Lúcio Flávio