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Luunja vs Läänemaa Haapsalu — Esiliiga B 2026

Luunja
Luunja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
10/20/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 32Tartu Sepa tänava staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Luunja76%
×Draw13%
Läänemaa Haapsalu11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luunja
3.36
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.25

Luunja creates 169% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 37 away

creates per match

Luunja
3.07
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.27

allows per match

Luunja
1.24
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.65

finishing

Luunja+0.00on par
Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luunja ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Luunja or draw
89%
Luunja or Läänemaa Haapsalu
87%
Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu
24%

Winning margin

Luunja wins by 2+
58%
Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Luunja 1+ goals
96%
Luunja 2+ goals
84%
Luunja 3+ goals
63%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
71%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
36%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Luunja (draw refunded)
88%
Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luunja at home — creates 3.07, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luunja attack 3.07 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.36

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.27 + Luunja defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Luunja scores more
76%
level
13%
Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
11%

Luunja at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Luunja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Luunja 1–1 Läänemaa Haapsalu

Luunja and Läänemaa Haapsalu drew 1-1 in Esiliiga B on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion in Tartu.