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Luton vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
1/14/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Luton40%
×Draw27%
West Brom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.29
West Brom
1.13

Luton creates 14% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 163 away

creates per match

Luton
1.32
West Brom
1.18

allows per match

Luton
1.08
West Brom
1.26

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
68%
Luton or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
60%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
18%
West Brom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
72%
Luton 2+ goals
37%
Luton 3+ goals
14%
West Brom 1+ goals
68%
West Brom 2+ goals
31%
West Brom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
55%
West Brom (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.08 · 117 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.26 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.32 + West Brom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

West Brom attack 1.18 + Luton defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luton scores more
40%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
32%

Luton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luton vs West Brom

West Brom beat Luton 3-2 in Championship on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.