Luton 0–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stoke City

J. Brown 34'

11/6/2021

Championship · Round 17Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton50%

×Draw26%

Stoke City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.97

Luton

1.53

Stoke City

0.97

Luton creates 58% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 47 away

1.39

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Stoke City

1.00

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Stoke City

1.67

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Stoke City-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw

76%

Luton or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

50%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

26%

Stoke City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

78%

Luton 2+ goals

45%

Luton 3+ goals

20%

Stoke City 1+ goals

62%

Stoke City 2+ goals

25%

Stoke City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

68%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Stoke City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Stoke City attack 1.00 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luton scores more

50%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

24%

Luton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Bursik

Stoke City · G

7.5

Match Events

34'

48'

51'

63'

64'

F. Onyedinma← H. Cornick

64'

M. Vrančić← S. Fletcher

65'

70'

71'

75'

80'

80'

J. Clark← G. Osho

84'

S. Surridge← J. Brown

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonStoke

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots5

5Corners6

10Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots5

2On Target1

4Off Target1

1Blocked3

4Inside Box5

3Outside Box0

Passing

55%Possession45%

440Total Passes362

331Accurate Passes239

75%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards5

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Luton vs Stoke City

Stoke City beat Luton 1-0 in Championship on November 6, 2021.

Goals: J. Brown (34').

Luton controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 5.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.

Luton vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Luton vs Stoke City