Luton 0–2 Stoke City: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

N. Powell 55'

S. Fletcher 46'

10/17/2020

Championship · Round 5Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton49%

×Draw26%

Stoke City25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.98

Luton

1.51

Stoke City

0.98

Luton creates 54% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 49 away

1.39

creates per match

1.03

0.93

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Stoke City

1.03

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Stoke City

1.64

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Stoke City-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw

75%

Luton or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

51%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

25%

Stoke City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

78%

Luton 2+ goals

44%

Luton 3+ goals

19%

Stoke City 1+ goals

62%

Stoke City 2+ goals

26%

Stoke City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

67%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.64 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Stoke City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Stoke City attack 1.03 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Luton scores more

49%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

25%

Luton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Davies

Stoke City · G

8.7

Match Events

20'

20'

25'

32'

46'

S. Fletcher↳ T. Campbell

55'

N. Powell↳ N. Collins

61'

J. Brown← T. Campbell

66'

J. Morrell← E. Lee

67'

J. Clark← M. Cranie

74'

J. Thompson← N. Powell

75'

G. Moncur← L. Berry

85'

L. Gregory← S. Fletcher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonStoke

Overview

56%Possession44%

18Total Shots8

16Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots8

7On Target3

5Off Target3

6Blocked2

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

458Total Passes362

342Accurate Passes238

75%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1