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Luton vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stoke City
Stoke City
J. Collins 90+1' (pen)
S. Vokes 9'
2/29/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton49%
×Draw26%
Stoke City25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.51
Stoke City
0.98

Luton creates 54% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 49 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Stoke City
1.03

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Stoke City
1.64

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Stoke City-0.23scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw
75%
Luton or Stoke City
74%
Draw or Stoke City
51%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
25%
Stoke City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
78%
Luton 2+ goals
44%
Luton 3+ goals
19%
Stoke City 1+ goals
62%
Stoke City 2+ goals
26%
Stoke City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
67%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.64 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Stoke City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Stoke City attack 1.03 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Luton scores more
49%
level
26%
Stoke City scores more
25%

Luton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
S. VokesStoke CityStoke City · F
7.9

Match Events

9'
S. Vokes↳ T. Smith
58'
G. Moncur← G. Rea
63'
Daniel Potts
66'
L. Bolton← I. Brown
72'
L. Gregory← S. Vokes
73'
C. McManaman← D. Potts
75'
J. Thompson← N. Powell
85'
N. Collins← T. Ince
88'
Sam Clucas
90+1'
J. CollinsPenalty

Possession

64%Luton

Shots

9Luton

Pass accuracy

56%Luton

Statistics

LutonStoke
Overview
64%Possession36%
9Total Shots9
4Corners6
11Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots9
3On Target3
4Off Target4
2Blocked2
4Inside Box6
5Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
480Total Passes267
388Accurate Passes172
81%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Luton vs Stoke City

Luton and Stoke City drew 1-1 in Championship on February 29, 2020.

Goals: S. Vokes (9'), J. Collins (90+1' pen).

Luton controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.