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Luton vs Stockport County — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
Preview
18:45
Stockport County
Stockport County
9/1/2026League OneLeague One · Round 4Kenilworth Road
Big match
44%
Luton
model favours
44%25%31%

Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Luton44%
×Draw25%
Stockport County31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.56
Stockport County
1.26

Luton creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Luton
1.46
Stockport County
1.37

allows per match

Luton
1.15
Stockport County
1.66

finishing

Luton+0.12scores more
Stockport County-0.19scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Stockport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Luton or draw
69%
Luton or Stockport County
75%
Draw or Stockport County
56%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
22%
Stockport County wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
79%
Luton 2+ goals
46%
Luton 3+ goals
21%
Stockport County 1+ goals
72%
Stockport County 2+ goals
36%
Stockport County 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
59%
Stockport County (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 12 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.46 + Stockport County defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

Stockport County attack 1.37 + Luton defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Luton scores more
44%
level
25%
Stockport County scores more
31%

Luton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Luton have won 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stockport County’s matches
  • Luton win just 37% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Luton
Possession-dominant
Stockport County
Balanced
55%Possession54%
76%Pass accuracy76%
12.8Shots13.1
1.60xGBiggest gap1.52
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LutonStockport County

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

5
Luton
2
Draws
0
Stockport County
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 43%
3–11–13–01–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Luton
DWWWW
County
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Luton vs Stockport County — Match Preview

Luton face Stockport County on September 1, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Luton host Stockport County at Kenilworth Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.