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Luton vs Reading — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Reading
Reading
H. Cornick 45+1'
5/7/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Luton46%
×Draw27%
Reading27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.40
Reading
1.02

Luton creates 37% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 112 away

creates per match

Luton
1.31
Reading
0.99

allows per match

Luton
1.04
Reading
1.49

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
73%
Luton or Reading
73%
Draw or Reading
54%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
22%
Reading wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
75%
Luton 2+ goals
41%
Luton 3+ goals
17%
Reading 1+ goals
64%
Reading 2+ goals
27%
Reading 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
62%
Reading (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.31 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Reading attack 0.99 + Luton defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Luton scores more
46%
level
27%
Reading scores more
27%

Luton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
K. NaismithLutonLuton · D
7.6

Match Events

41'
Abdul Baba Rahman
45+1'
H. Cornick
67'
A. Muskwe← H. Cornick
74'
R. Scott← Y. Meïté
78'
R. Snodgrass← A. Campbell
78'
T. Dele-Bashiru← J. Hoilett
84'
K. Abrefa← T. Holmes
90'
D. Hylton← C. Jerome

Possession

44%Luton

Shots

16Luton

Pass accuracy

48%Luton

Statistics

LutonReading
Overview
44%Possession56%
16Total Shots8
1Corners4
11Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots8
4On Target2
8Off Target3
4Blocked3
10Inside Box5
6Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
312Total Passes415
208Accurate Passes301
67%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Championship: Luton 1–0 Reading

Luton beat Reading 1-0 in Championship on May 7, 2022.

Goals: H. Cornick (45+1').

Reading controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.