Luton 0–2 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

QPR

M. Bonne 89'

C. Austin 39'

1/12/2021

Championship · Round 23Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%

×Draw28%

QPR25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.86

Luton

1.31

QPR

0.86

Luton creates 52% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 58 away

1.39

creates per match

0.79

0.93

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Luton

1.39

QPR

0.79

allows per match

Luton

0.93

QPR

1.24

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

QPR+0.09on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Luton or draw

75%

Luton or QPR

72%

Draw or QPR

53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

22%

QPR wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

73%

Luton 2+ goals

38%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

QPR 1+ goals

58%

QPR 2+ goals

21%

QPR 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

66%

QPR (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + QPR defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

QPR attack 0.79 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more

47%

level

28%

QPR scores more

25%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

C. Austin

QPR · F

8.2

Match Events

39'

C. Austin↳ G. Cameron

59'

75'

77'

83'

83'

D. Hylton← J. Collins

83'

89'

90'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonQPR

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots13

2Corners6

7Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target8

6Off Target3

1Blocked2

4Inside Box10

5Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

401Total Passes446

273Accurate Passes313

68%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2

Match Recap: Luton vs QPR

QPR beat Luton 2-0 in Championship on January 12, 2021.

Goals: C. Austin (39'), M. Bonne (89').

QPR controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.

Luton vs QPR — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Luton vs QPR