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Luton vs QPR — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
QPR
QPR
J. Collins 20' (pen)
D. Ball 65'
7/14/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw28%
QPR25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.31
QPR
0.86

Luton creates 52% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 58 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Luton
0.93
QPR
1.24

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
QPR+0.09on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Luton or draw
75%
Luton or QPR
72%
Draw or QPR
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
22%
QPR wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
73%
Luton 2+ goals
38%
Luton 3+ goals
14%
QPR 1+ goals
58%
QPR 2+ goals
21%
QPR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
66%
QPR (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + QPR defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

QPR attack 0.79 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
28%
QPR scores more
25%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
J. BreeLutonLuton · D
8.0

Match Events

11'
C. Masterson← Àngel Rangel
20'
J. CollinsPenalty
58'
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu
65'
D. Ball↳ B. Osayi-Samuel
67'
M. Cranie← E. Lee
81'
A. Oteh← L. Amos
82'
D. Hylton← J. Collins
82'
O. Shodipo← B. Osayi-Samuel
83'
G. Moncur← A. Shinnie
83'
K. LuaLua← H. Cornick

Possession

33%Luton

Shots

11Luton

Pass accuracy

43%Luton

Statistics

LutonQPR
Overview
33%Possession67%
11Total Shots11
6Corners4
9Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots11
3On Target5
4Off Target3
4Blocked3
8Inside Box8
3Outside Box3
Passing
33%Possession67%
265Total Passes551
164Accurate Passes454
62%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls15
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Luton vs QPR

Luton and QPR drew 1-1 in Championship on July 14, 2020.

Goals: J. Collins (20' pen), D. Ball (65').

QPR controlled possession (67%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.