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Luton vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
1/29/2019League OneLeague One · Round 27Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw25%
Portsmouth28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.57
Portsmouth
1.14

Luton creates 38% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 134 away

creates per match

Luton
2.04
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Luton or draw
72%
Luton or Portsmouth
75%
Draw or Portsmouth
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
24%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
79%
Luton 2+ goals
46%
Luton 3+ goals
21%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
68%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
32%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
63%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 2.04 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.57

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
25%
Portsmouth scores more
28%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Luton 3–2 Portsmouth

Luton beat Portsmouth 3-2 in League One on January 29, 2019.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.