Luton 1–1 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Luton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nottingham Forest

G. Rea 22'

G. Rea 64' (OG)

10/28/2020

Championship · Round 8Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Luton37%

×Draw29%

Nottingham Forest34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.10

Luton

1.17

Nottingham Forest

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 95 away

1.31

creates per match

1.16

1.04

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Luton

1.31

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Luton

1.04

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luton+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Luton or draw

66%

Luton or Nottingham Forest

71%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

63%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

16%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

69%

Luton 2+ goals

33%

Luton 3+ goals

11%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

67%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

30%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

52%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.31 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Luton defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Luton scores more

37%

level

29%

Nottingham Forest scores more

34%

Luton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Christie

Nottingham Forest · D

7.3

Match Events

22'

G. Rea↳ M. Cranie

44'

Nicholas Ioannou

46'

C. Jenkinson← S. Ameobi

55'

Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu

64'

G. ReaOwn goal

71'

Martin Cranie

73'

Glen Rea

77'

K. LuaLua← E. Lee

77'

J. Clark← T. Lockyer

84'

G. Moncur← K. Dewsbury-Hall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonNottingham

Overview

56%Possession44%

6Total Shots7

5Corners2

15Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots7

2On Target1

3Off Target4

1Blocked2

6Inside Box2

0Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

531Total Passes407

442Accurate Passes332

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2