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Luton vs Nottingham Forest — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
C. McManaman 87'
S. Ameobi 58'
L. Grabban 39'
11/2/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Luton37%
×Draw29%
Nottingham Forest34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.17
Nottingham Forest
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 95 away

creates per match

Luton
1.31
Nottingham Forest
1.16

allows per match

Luton
1.04
Nottingham Forest
1.03

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Nottingham Forest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Luton or draw
66%
Luton or Nottingham Forest
71%
Draw or Nottingham Forest
63%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
16%
Nottingham Forest wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
69%
Luton 2+ goals
33%
Luton 3+ goals
11%
Nottingham Forest 1+ goals
67%
Nottingham Forest 2+ goals
30%
Nottingham Forest 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
52%
Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.31 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Luton defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Luton scores more
37%
level
29%
Nottingham Forest scores more
34%

Luton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. CashNottingham ForestNottingham Forest · D
7.7

Match Events

33'
K. LuaLua← I. Brown
39'
L. Grabban
58'
S. Ameobi↳ J. Lolley
59'
C. McManaman← H. Cornick
69'
Joe Worrall
70'
L. Bolton← J. Bree
71'
A. Adomah← S. Ameobi
83'
J. Robinson← J. Lolley
87'
C. McManaman
90+2'
Rafa Mir← L. Grabban

Possession

70%Luton

Shots

9Luton

Pass accuracy

55%Luton

Statistics

LutonNottingham
Overview
70%Possession30%
9Total Shots12
8Corners7
9Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots12
3On Target4
3Off Target5
3Blocked3
5Inside Box5
4Outside Box7
Passing
70%Possession30%
552Total Passes223
469Accurate Passes155
85%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides5

Match Recap: Luton vs Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest beat Luton 2-1 in Championship on November 2, 2019.

Goals: L. Grabban (39'), S. Ameobi (58'), C. McManaman (87').

Luton controlled possession (70%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.