Luton 2–1 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Luton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mansfield Town

G. Rea 71'

J. Collins 61'

K. Hemmings 34'

4/2/2018

League Two · Round 41Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Luton43%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.01

Luton

1.31

Mansfield Town

1.01

Luton creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 141 away

1.46

creates per match

1.25

0.77

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Luton

1.46

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Luton

0.77

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luton+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw

71%

Luton or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

57%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

20%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

73%

Luton 2+ goals

38%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

64%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

27%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

60%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.46 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Luton defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luton scores more

43%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

29%

Luton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

K. Hemmings↳ C. Logan

37'

Alan Sheehan

37'

Lee Angol

44'

G. Rea← S. Cuthbert

61'

J. Collins↳ P. Ruddock

69'

Kane Hemmings

70'

J. Jervis← D. Hylton

71'

A. Potter← W. Atkinson

71'

G. Rea

72'

Jacob Mellis

83'

J. Justin← E. Lee

86'

89'

89'

90'

Luton

Mansfield

1

A

Logan

6

Diamond

2

Bennett

16

▼

White

11

▼

Atkinson

8

Mellis

19

▼

9

22

7

23

⚽

Hemmings

36

Shea

6

▼

44

3

4

8

17

A

Ruddock

7

Stacey

9

▼

Hylton

19

⚽

Collins

38

▼

Lee

Manager: N. Jones

44'▲G. Rea←▼S. Cuthbert

70'▲J. Jervis←▼D. Hylton

83'▲J. Justin←▼E. Lee

Luton substitutes

16Rea15Jervis2Justin1Štěch14Cornick20Downes22Gambin

Manager: D. Flitcroft

71'▲A. Potter←▼W. Atkinson

89'▲P. Anderson←▼J. Hunt

89'▲R. Miller←▼H. White

Mansfield Town substitutes

17Potter10Anderson31Miller4Digby5Pearce12Olejnik26Byrom