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Luton vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Lincoln
Lincoln
N. Wells 45'
G. Kodua 35'
R. Street 22'
F. Draper 11'
1/17/2026League OneLeague One · Round 27Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Luton38%
×Draw25%
Lincoln37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.42
Lincoln
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Luton
1.67
Lincoln
1.54

allows per match

Luton
1.25
Lincoln
1.16

finishing

Luton+0.11scores more
Lincoln+0.66scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Luton or draw
63%
Luton or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
62%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
18%
Lincoln wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
76%
Luton 2+ goals
41%
Luton 3+ goals
17%
Lincoln 1+ goals
75%
Lincoln 2+ goals
41%
Lincoln 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
51%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.16 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.67 + Lincoln defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lincoln attack 1.54 + Luton defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Luton scores more
38%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
37%

Luton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
G. KoduaLutonLuton · M
8.2

Match Events

11'
F. Draper↳ J. Moylan
22'
R. Street↳ T. Hamer
35'
G. Kodua↳ L. Walsh
39'
Robert Street
45+6'
Ivan Varfolomeev
45'
N. Wells↳ K. Naismith
46'
Conor McGrandles
46'
D. Jefferies← I. Varfolomeev
49'
Cohen Bramall
60'
S. Morris← E. Lawrence
68'
E. Ring← J. Moylan
75'
Dom Jefferies
77'
J. Richards← G. Kodua
86'
R. Towler← R. Hackett-Fairchild
89'
J. Yates← N. Wells
90+5'
Freddie Draper

Possession

56%Luton

Shots

18Luton

Pass accuracy

53%Luton

Statistics

LutonLincoln
Overview
56%Possession44%
18Total Shots11
1.71Expected Goals (xG)1.81
8Corners7
14Fouls21
Shots
18Total Shots11
5On Target3
7Off Target3
6Blocked5
11Inside Box8
7Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
403Total Passes314
309Accurate Passes214
77%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls21
1Yellow Cards5
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Luton vs Lincoln

Luton and Lincoln drew 2-2 in League One on January 17, 2026.

Goals: F. Draper (11'), R. Street (22'), G. Kodua (35'), N. Wells (45').

Luton controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.