Luton 4–0 Doncaster: Result & Stats | League One

Luton

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Doncaster

L. Berry 90+2'

K. LuaLua 82'

D. Hylton 57'

P. Ruddock 33'

3/23/2019

League One · Round 39Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Luton57%

×Draw23%

Doncaster20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.92

Luton

1.76

Doncaster

0.92

Luton creates 91% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

1.71

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Luton

1.71

Doncaster

0.83

allows per match

Luton

1.00

Doncaster

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luton+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Luton or draw

80%

Luton or Doncaster

77%

Draw or Doncaster

43%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

32%

Doncaster wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

83%

Luton 2+ goals

52%

Luton 3+ goals

26%

Doncaster 1+ goals

60%

Doncaster 2+ goals

23%

Doncaster 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

75%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.71 + Doncaster defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.76

Doncaster attack 0.83 + Luton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Luton scores more

57%

level

23%

Doncaster scores more

20%

Luton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Aaron Lewis

23'

L. Berry← D. Potts

33'

P. Ruddock↳ K. LuaLua

45'

57'

63'

63'

68'

73'

78'

79'

H. Cornick← D. Hylton

82'

K. LuaLua↳ J. Stacey

87'

J. Cummings← K. LuaLua

90+2'

L. Berry

Luton

Doncaster

13

6

3

31

44

▼

Lewis

26

Coppinger

10

▼

11

17

9

7

▼

Wilks

36

Shea

5

Bradley

3

▼

Potts

6

Pearson

25

⚽A

▼

LuaLua

11

Shinnie

17

⚽

Ruddock

7

A

Stacey

2

Justin

9

⚽

▼

Hylton

10

Lee

Manager: M. Harford

23'▲L. Berry←▼D. Potts

79'▲H. Cornick←▼D. Hylton

87'▲J. Cummings←▼K. LuaLua

Luton substitutes

8Berry14Cornick23Cummings44Sheehan24Thorne40Isted20Moncur

Manager: G. McCann

63'▲T. Smith←▼M. Wilks

63'▲K. Sadlier←▼T. Rowe

73'▲L. Hasani←▼A. Lewis

Doncaster substitutes

18Smith22Sadlier41Hasani14Beestin33Jones12Anderson19May