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Luton vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
N. Wells 13'
F. Tavares 90'
2/21/2026League OneLeague One · Round 34Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Luton45%
×Draw25%
Burton Albion30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.55
Burton Albion
1.23

Luton creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Luton
1.46
Burton Albion
1.32

allows per match

Luton
1.15
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Luton+0.12scores more
Burton Albion-0.21scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Luton or draw
70%
Luton or Burton Albion
75%
Draw or Burton Albion
55%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
22%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
79%
Luton 2+ goals
46%
Luton 3+ goals
20%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
71%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
35%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
60%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 12 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.46 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Burton Albion attack 1.32 + Luton defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Luton scores more
45%
level
25%
Burton Albion scores more
30%

Luton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
A. HartridgeBurton AlbionBurton Albion · D
8.2

Match Events

13'
N. Wells↳ J. Johnson
29'
George Evans
36'
Kasey Palmer
46'
D. van den Berg← K. Palmer
46'
J. Moon← J. Armer
61'
A. Cannon← J. J. McKiernan
61'
S. Krubally← G. Evans
69'
D. Cole← N. Wells
70'
J. Richards← S. Morris
74'
Kyran Lofthouse
80'
K. Adom← T. Shade
80'
F. Tavares← T. Sibbick
82'
Josh Keeley
86'
N. Lonwijk← G. Kodua
89'
Davy van den Berg
89'
Andy Cannon
90'
F. Tavares↳ U. Godwin-Malife

Possession

56%Luton

Shots

5Luton

Pass accuracy

53%Luton

Statistics

LutonBurton
Overview
56%Possession44%
5Total Shots7
1Corners6
15Fouls18
Shots
5Total Shots7
2On Target1
2Off Target6
1Blocked0
3Inside Box4
2Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
385Total Passes292
266Accurate Passes179
69%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls18
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

League One: Luton 1–1 Burton Albion

Luton and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in League One on February 21, 2026.

Goals: N. Wells (13'), F. Tavares (90').

Luton controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 7.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.