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Luton vs Brentford — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Brentford
Brentford
M. Cranie 45+2'
S. Baptiste 9' (OG)
O. Watkins 83'
2/25/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Luton36%
×Draw27%
Brentford37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.21
Brentford
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 70 away

creates per match

Luton
1.31
Brentford
1.41

allows per match

Luton
1.04
Brentford
1.10

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
63%
Luton or Brentford
73%
Draw or Brentford
64%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
15%
Brentford wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
70%
Luton 2+ goals
34%
Luton 3+ goals
12%
Brentford 1+ goals
71%
Brentford 2+ goals
35%
Brentford 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
49%
Brentford (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.31 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Brentford attack 1.41 + Luton defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Luton scores more
36%
level
27%
Brentford scores more
37%

Brentford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35
M. RasmussenBrentfordBrentford · M
8.4

Match Events

9'
S. BaptisteOwn goal
25'
Christian Nørgaard
27'
Glen Rea
45+2'
M. Cranie↳ M. Pearson
63'
T. Fosu← B. Mbeumo
63'
E. Marcondes← C. Nørgaard
72'
J. Valencia← S. Baptiste
83'
O. Watkins↳ M. Rasmussen
88'
D. Hylton← H. Cornick
90'
Daniel Potts
90'
Emiliano Marcondes

Possession

31%Luton

Shots

10Luton

Pass accuracy

39%Luton

Statistics

LutonBrentford
Overview
31%Possession69%
10Total Shots19
2Corners11
14Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots19
3On Target7
3Off Target6
4Blocked6
6Inside Box12
4Outside Box7
Passing
31%Possession69%
224Total Passes488
110Accurate Passes376
49%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Championship: Luton 2–1 Brentford

Luton beat Brentford 2-1 in Championship on February 25, 2020.

Goals: S. Baptiste (9' o.g.), M. Cranie (45+2'), O. Watkins (83').

Brentford controlled possession (69%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.