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Luton vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
R. Johnson 85' (OG)
8/1/2025League OneLeague One · Round 1Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Luton53%
×Draw23%
AFC Wimbledon23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.79
AFC Wimbledon
1.10

Luton creates 63% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Luton
1.67
AFC Wimbledon
0.95

allows per match

Luton
1.25
AFC Wimbledon
1.92

finishing

Luton+0.11scores more
AFC Wimbledon+0.38scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Luton or draw
77%
Luton or AFC Wimbledon
77%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
47%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
30%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
83%
Luton 2+ goals
53%
Luton 3+ goals
26%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
67%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
30%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
70%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.92 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.67 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.79

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.95 + Luton defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Luton scores more
53%
level
23%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
23%

Luton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. AndersenLutonLuton · D
7.6

Match Events

36'
Joe Lewis
67'
L. Fanne← G. Saville
67'
Z. Nelson← N. Lonwijk
70'
D. Orsi-Dadomo← M. Stevens
80'
C. Woodrow← J. Clark
80'
S. Baptiste← L. Walsh
80'
A. Hackford← J. Kelly
83'
Millenic Alli
85'
R. JohnsonOwn goal
88'
M. McGuinness← R. Walters
88'
A. Sasu← M. Hippolyte

Possession

65%Luton

Shots

6Luton

Pass accuracy

58%Luton

Statistics

LutonAFC
Overview
65%Possession35%
6Total Shots2
0.74Expected Goals (xG)0.04
5Corners2
10Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots2
1On Target0
2Off Target2
3Blocked0
4Inside Box1
2Outside Box1
Passing
65%Possession35%
463Total Passes256
350Accurate Passes144
76%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides6

League One: Luton 1–0 AFC Wimbledon

Luton beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 in League One on August 1, 2025.

Goals: R. Johnson (85' o.g.).

Luton controlled possession (65%) and registered 6 shots to 2.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.