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Luton Town W vs Brighton W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Luton Town W
Luton Town W
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Brighton W
Brighton W
1/14/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundSharpenhoe Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Luton Town W15%
×Draw16%
Brighton W69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton Town W
1.23
Brighton W
2.80

Brighton W creates 128% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Luton Town W
1.20
Brighton W
3.00

allows per match

Luton Town W
2.60
Brighton W
1.25

finishing

Luton Town W+0.00on par
Brighton W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton Town W ↓

Brighton W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Luton Town W or draw
31%
Luton Town W or Brighton W
84%
Draw or Brighton W
85%

Winning margin

Luton Town W wins by 2+
5%
Brighton W wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Luton Town W 1+ goals
71%
Luton Town W 2+ goals
35%
Luton Town W 3+ goals
13%
Brighton W 1+ goals
94%
Brighton W 2+ goals
76%
Brighton W 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Luton Town W (draw refunded)
17%
Brighton W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton Town W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Brighton W away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton Town W attack 1.20 + Brighton W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Brighton W attack 3.00 + Luton Town W defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Luton Town W scores more
15%
level
16%
Brighton W scores more
69%

Brighton W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Brighton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luton Town W vs Brighton W

Brighton W beat Luton Town W 6-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sharpenhoe Road in Barton-Le-Clay, Bedfordshire.