Lustenau 1–0 Austria Lustenau II: Result & Stats

Lustenau

FT

1 – 0

Austria Lustenau II

6/8/2024

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 26Stadion an der Holzstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Lustenau56%

×Draw20%

Austria Lustenau II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LustenauExpected goals in this matchAustria Lustenau II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.39

Lustenau

2.23

Austria Lustenau II

1.39

Lustenau creates 60% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 41 away

2.21

creates per match

1.54

1.23

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Lustenau

2.21

Austria Lustenau II

1.54

allows per match

Lustenau

1.23

Austria Lustenau II

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lustenau+0.00on par

Austria Lustenau II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lustenau ↓

Austria Lustenau II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Lustenau or draw

76%

Lustenau or Austria Lustenau II

80%

Draw or Austria Lustenau II

44%

Winning margin

Lustenau wins by 2+

35%

Austria Lustenau II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lustenau 1+ goals

89%

Lustenau 2+ goals

65%

Lustenau 3+ goals

38%

Austria Lustenau II 1+ goals

75%

Austria Lustenau II 2+ goals

40%

Austria Lustenau II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lustenau (draw refunded)

70%

Austria Lustenau II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lustenau at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Austria Lustenau II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lustenau attack 2.21 + Austria Lustenau II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.23

Austria Lustenau II attack 1.54 + Lustenau defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lustenau scores more

56%

level

20%

Austria Lustenau II scores more

24%

Lustenau at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff