Lustenau 1–1 Alberschwende: Result & Stats

Lustenau

FT

1 – 1

Alberschwende

11/11/2023

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 3Stadion an der Holzstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Lustenau48%

×Draw22%

Alberschwende29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LustenauExpected goals in this matchAlberschwende

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.46

Lustenau

1.92

Alberschwende

1.46

Lustenau creates 32% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 73 away

2.21

creates per match

1.68

1.23

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Lustenau

2.21

Alberschwende

1.68

allows per match

Lustenau

1.23

Alberschwende

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lustenau+0.00on par

Alberschwende+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lustenau ↓

Alberschwende →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lustenau or draw

71%

Lustenau or Alberschwende

78%

Draw or Alberschwende

52%

Winning margin

Lustenau wins by 2+

27%

Alberschwende wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lustenau 1+ goals

85%

Lustenau 2+ goals

57%

Lustenau 3+ goals

30%

Alberschwende 1+ goals

77%

Alberschwende 2+ goals

43%

Alberschwende 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lustenau (draw refunded)

62%

Alberschwende (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lustenau at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Alberschwende away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lustenau attack 2.21 + Alberschwende defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.92

Alberschwende attack 1.68 + Lustenau defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lustenau scores more

48%

level

22%

Alberschwende scores more

29%

Lustenau at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff