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Lusitano GC Évora vs Pinhalnovense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Lusitano GC Évora
Lusitano GC Évora
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pinhalnovense
Pinhalnovense
1/16/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 12Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lusitano GC Évora42%
×Draw25%
Pinhalnovense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano GC Évora
1.50
Pinhalnovense
1.30

Lusitano GC Évora creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lusitano GC Évora
1.00
Pinhalnovense
1.40

allows per match

Lusitano GC Évora
1.20
Pinhalnovense
2.00

finishing

Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par
Pinhalnovense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano GC Évora ↓

Pinhalnovense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lusitano GC Évora or draw
67%
Lusitano GC Évora or Pinhalnovense
75%
Draw or Pinhalnovense
58%

Winning margin

Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+
20%
Pinhalnovense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals
78%
Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals
44%
Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals
19%
Pinhalnovense 1+ goals
73%
Pinhalnovense 2+ goals
37%
Pinhalnovense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)
56%
Pinhalnovense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano GC Évora at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Pinhalnovense away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano GC Évora attack 1.00 + Pinhalnovense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pinhalnovense attack 1.40 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lusitano GC Évora scores more
42%
level
25%
Pinhalnovense scores more
33%

Lusitano GC Évora at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lusitano GC Évora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Lusitano GC Évora 2–1 Pinhalnovense

Lusitano GC Évora beat Pinhalnovense 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on January 16, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora in Évora.