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Lusitano GC Évora vs Moura — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Lusitano GC Évora
Lusitano GC Évora
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Moura
Moura
12/13/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 2Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lusitano GC Évora45%
×Draw28%
Moura27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano GC Évora
1.30
Moura
0.95

Lusitano GC Évora creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lusitano GC Évora
1.00
Moura
0.70

allows per match

Lusitano GC Évora
1.20
Moura
1.60

finishing

Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par
Moura+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano GC Évora ↓

Moura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lusitano GC Évora or draw
73%
Lusitano GC Évora or Moura
72%
Draw or Moura
55%

Winning margin

Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+
20%
Moura wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals
73%
Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals
37%
Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals
14%
Moura 1+ goals
61%
Moura 2+ goals
25%
Moura 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)
62%
Moura (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano GC Évora at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Moura away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano GC Évora attack 1.00 + Moura defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Moura attack 0.70 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lusitano GC Évora scores more
45%
level
28%
Moura scores more
27%

Lusitano GC Évora at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lusitano GC Évora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Lusitano GC Évora 2–1 Moura

Lusitano GC Évora beat Moura 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora in Évora.