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Lusitano GC Évora vs Juventude Évora — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Lusitano GC Évora
Lusitano GC Évora
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Juventude Évora
Juventude Évora
3/7/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 19Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lusitano GC Évora38%
×Draw27%
Juventude Évora35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano GC Évora
1.25
Juventude Évora
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lusitano GC Évora
1.00
Juventude Évora
1.20

allows per match

Lusitano GC Évora
1.20
Juventude Évora
1.50

finishing

Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par
Juventude Évora+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano GC Évora ↓

Juventude Évora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lusitano GC Évora or draw
65%
Lusitano GC Évora or Juventude Évora
73%
Draw or Juventude Évora
62%

Winning margin

Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+
16%
Juventude Évora wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals
71%
Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals
36%
Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals
13%
Juventude Évora 1+ goals
70%
Juventude Évora 2+ goals
34%
Juventude Évora 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)
52%
Juventude Évora (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano GC Évora at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Juventude Évora away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano GC Évora attack 1.00 + Juventude Évora defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Juventude Évora attack 1.20 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lusitano GC Évora scores more
38%
level
27%
Juventude Évora scores more
35%

Lusitano GC Évora at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lusitano GC Évora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Lusitano GC Évora 1–2 Juventude Évora

Juventude Évora beat Lusitano GC Évora 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora in Évora.