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Lusitano GC Évora vs Amora — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Lusitano GC Évora
Lusitano GC Évora
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Amora
Amora
2/7/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 15Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lusitano GC Évora21%
×Draw26%
Amora52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano GC Évora
0.85
Amora
1.50

Amora creates 76% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lusitano GC Évora
1.00
Amora
1.80

allows per match

Lusitano GC Évora
1.20
Amora
0.70

finishing

Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par
Amora+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano GC Évora ↓

Amora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lusitano GC Évora or draw
48%
Lusitano GC Évora or Amora
74%
Draw or Amora
79%

Winning margin

Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+
7%
Amora wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals
57%
Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals
21%
Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals
5%
Amora 1+ goals
78%
Amora 2+ goals
44%
Amora 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)
29%
Amora (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano GC Évora at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Amora away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano GC Évora attack 1.00 + Amora defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Amora attack 1.80 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lusitano GC Évora scores more
21%
level
26%
Amora scores more
52%

Amora at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Amora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Lusitano GC Évora 0–2 Amora

Amora beat Lusitano GC Évora 2-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora in Évora.