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Lusitano FCV vs Sporting CP — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitano FCV
Lusitano FCV
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
11/24/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal do Fontelo (Viseu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lusitano FCV17%
×Draw19%
Sporting CP64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano FCV
1.16
Sporting CP
2.38

Sporting CP creates 105% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lusitano FCV
1.43
Sporting CP
2.05

allows per match

Lusitano FCV
2.71
Sporting CP
0.89

finishing

Lusitano FCV+0.00on par
Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano FCV ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lusitano FCV or draw
36%
Lusitano FCV or Sporting CP
81%
Draw or Sporting CP
83%

Winning margin

Lusitano FCV wins by 2+
6%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Lusitano FCV 1+ goals
69%
Lusitano FCV 2+ goals
32%
Lusitano FCV 3+ goals
11%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
91%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
68%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Lusitano FCV (draw refunded)
21%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano FCV at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano FCV attack 1.43 + Sporting CP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sporting CP attack 2.05 + Lusitano FCV defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lusitano FCV scores more
17%
level
19%
Sporting CP scores more
64%

Sporting CP at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Lusitano FCV 1–4 Sporting CP

Sporting CP beat Lusitano FCV 4-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo (Viseu).