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Lusitano FCV vs Ançã — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitano FCV
Lusitano FCV
FT
3 – 2
Ançã
Ançã
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio dos Trambelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lusitano FCV46%
×Draw20%
Ançã33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano FCV
2.21
Ançã
1.85

Lusitano FCV creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lusitano FCV
1.43
Ançã
1.00

allows per match

Lusitano FCV
2.71
Ançã
3.00

finishing

Lusitano FCV+0.00on par
Ançã+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano FCV ↓

Ançã →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Lusitano FCV or draw
67%
Lusitano FCV or Ançã
80%
Draw or Ançã
54%

Winning margin

Lusitano FCV wins by 2+
27%
Ançã wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lusitano FCV 1+ goals
89%
Lusitano FCV 2+ goals
65%
Lusitano FCV 3+ goals
38%
Ançã 1+ goals
84%
Ançã 2+ goals
55%
Ançã 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Lusitano FCV (draw refunded)
58%
Ançã (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano FCV at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Ançã away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano FCV attack 1.43 + Ançã defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Ançã attack 1.00 + Lusitano FCV defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lusitano FCV scores more
46%
level
20%
Ançã scores more
33%

Lusitano FCV at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lusitano FCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Lusitano FCV 3–2 Ançã

Lusitano FCV beat Ançã 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio dos Trambelos in Viseu.