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Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Fontinhas — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitano Évora 1911
Lusitano Évora 1911
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fontinhas
Fontinhas
9/11/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Estrela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lusitano Évora 191154%
×Draw22%
Fontinhas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.98
Fontinhas
1.27

Lusitano Évora 1911 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.57
Fontinhas
1.40

allows per match

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.14
Fontinhas
2.40

finishing

Lusitano Évora 1911+0.00on par
Fontinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano Évora 1911 ↓

Fontinhas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lusitano Évora 1911 or draw
76%
Lusitano Évora 1911 or Fontinhas
78%
Draw or Fontinhas
46%

Winning margin

Lusitano Évora 1911 wins by 2+
31%
Fontinhas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lusitano Évora 1911 1+ goals
86%
Lusitano Évora 1911 2+ goals
59%
Lusitano Évora 1911 3+ goals
31%
Fontinhas 1+ goals
72%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
36%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lusitano Évora 1911 (draw refunded)
69%
Fontinhas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano Évora 1911 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Fontinhas away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano Évora 1911 attack 1.57 + Fontinhas defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.98

Fontinhas attack 1.40 + Lusitano Évora 1911 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lusitano Évora 1911 scores more
54%
level
22%
Fontinhas scores more
24%

Lusitano Évora 1911 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lusitano Évora 1911 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Lusitano Évora 1911 0–2 Fontinhas

Fontinhas beat Lusitano Évora 1911 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Estrela in Évora.