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Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Comércio Indústria — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitano Évora 1911
Lusitano Évora 1911
FT
2 – 0
Comércio Indústria
Comércio Indústria
9/10/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Estrela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lusitano Évora 191170%
×Draw20%
Comércio Indústria10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.95
Comércio Indústria
0.57

Lusitano Évora 1911 creates 242% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.57
Comércio Indústria
0.00

allows per match

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.14
Comércio Indústria
2.33

finishing

Lusitano Évora 1911+0.00on par
Comércio Indústria+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano Évora 1911 ↓

Comércio Indústria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lusitano Évora 1911 or draw
90%
Lusitano Évora 1911 or Comércio Indústria
80%
Draw or Comércio Indústria
30%

Winning margin

Lusitano Évora 1911 wins by 2+
44%
Comércio Indústria wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lusitano Évora 1911 1+ goals
86%
Lusitano Évora 1911 2+ goals
58%
Lusitano Évora 1911 3+ goals
31%
Comércio Indústria 1+ goals
43%
Comércio Indústria 2+ goals
11%
Comércio Indústria 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Lusitano Évora 1911 (draw refunded)
88%
Comércio Indústria (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano Évora 1911 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Comércio Indústria away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano Évora 1911 attack 1.57 + Comércio Indústria defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.95

Comércio Indústria attack 0.00 + Lusitano Évora 1911 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lusitano Évora 1911 scores more
70%
level
20%
Comércio Indústria scores more
10%

Lusitano Évora 1911 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lusitano Évora 1911 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Comércio Indústria

Lusitano Évora 1911 beat Comércio Indústria 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Estrela in Évora.