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Lusitano Évora 1911 vs AVS — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitano Évora 1911
Lusitano Évora 1911
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
AVS
AVS
11/23/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundCampo Estrela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lusitano Évora 191126%
×Draw24%
AVS50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.12
AVS
1.65

AVS creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.57
AVS
2.17

allows per match

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.14
AVS
0.67

finishing

Lusitano Évora 1911+0.00on par
AVS+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano Évora 1911 ↓

AVS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lusitano Évora 1911 or draw
50%
Lusitano Évora 1911 or AVS
76%
Draw or AVS
74%

Winning margin

Lusitano Évora 1911 wins by 2+
10%
AVS wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lusitano Évora 1911 1+ goals
67%
Lusitano Évora 1911 2+ goals
31%
Lusitano Évora 1911 3+ goals
10%
AVS 1+ goals
81%
AVS 2+ goals
49%
AVS 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lusitano Évora 1911 (draw refunded)
34%
AVS (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano Évora 1911 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

AVS away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano Évora 1911 attack 1.57 + AVS defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.12

AVS attack 2.17 + Lusitano Évora 1911 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lusitano Évora 1911 scores more
26%
level
24%
AVS scores more
50%

AVS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Lusitano Évora 1911 3–2 AVS

Lusitano Évora 1911 beat AVS 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Estrela in Évora.