Lusitano Évora 1911 0–1 Atlético CP: Result & Stats

Lusitano Évora 1911

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético CP

C. Pascoal 25'

9/13/2025

Liga 3 · Round 4Campo Estrela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lusitano Évora 191143%

×Draw30%

Atlético CP28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lusitano Évora 1911Expected goals in this matchAtlético CP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.90

Lusitano Évora 1911

1.19

Atlético CP

0.90

Lusitano Évora 1911 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

1.21

creates per match

1.09

0.71

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Lusitano Évora 1911

1.21

Atlético CP

1.09

allows per match

Lusitano Évora 1911

0.71

Atlético CP

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lusitano Évora 1911+0.00on par

Atlético CP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano Évora 1911 ↓

Atlético CP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lusitano Évora 1911 or draw

72%

Lusitano Évora 1911 or Atlético CP

70%

Draw or Atlético CP

57%

Winning margin

Lusitano Évora 1911 wins by 2+

18%

Atlético CP wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lusitano Évora 1911 1+ goals

70%

Lusitano Évora 1911 2+ goals

33%

Lusitano Évora 1911 3+ goals

12%

Atlético CP 1+ goals

59%

Atlético CP 2+ goals

23%

Atlético CP 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lusitano Évora 1911 (draw refunded)

61%

Atlético CP (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano Évora 1911 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Atlético CP away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano Évora 1911 attack 1.21 + Atlético CP defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atlético CP attack 1.09 + Lusitano Évora 1911 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lusitano Évora 1911 scores more

43%

level

30%

Atlético CP scores more

28%

Lusitano Évora 1911 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lusitano Évora 1911 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

C. Pascoal↳ J. Herrera

32'

S. Davou

58'

T. Baptista← B. Cande

58'

66'

66'

67'

74'

74'

Y. Sonhi← E. Carvalho

79'

R. Marques← J. Herrera

79'

H. O. Ekanga Ondoa← Nicolas Souza

84'

R. Marques

84'

G. Sequeira← S. Davou

90'

C. Santana

90+1'

R. Pereira← Joaozinho

Lusitano

Atlético

1

23

31

4

5

18

19

▼

Okoli

6

⚽

Pascoal

96

A

▼

Herrera

14

▼

Joaozinho

9

▼

Souza

22

Martins

4

Santana

53

▼

5

25

6

11

10

▼

Aguas

14

▼

Cande

30

▼

Davou

9

▼

Lopes

Manager: Ricardo Pessoa

58'▲T. Baptista←▼B. Cande

58'▲G. Isnaba←▼D. Lopes

74'▲B. Prego←▼M. Aguas

74'▲Y. Sonhi←▼E. Carvalho

84'▲G. Sequeira←▼S. Davou

Lusitano Évora 1911 substitutes

1Sousa7Sequeira8Baptista18Gomez24Prego29Isnaba37Monteiro77Sonhi80Gomes

Manager: Pedro D'Oliveira

67'▲C. Santana←▼F. Okoli

79'▲R. Marques←▼J. Herrera

79'▲H. O. Ekanga Ondoa←▼Nicolas Souza

90+1'▲R. Pereira←▼Joaozinho

Atlético CP substitutes

99Dias20Pereira3Gonzalez10Caleb60Marques38Santana28Ondoa11Delcio7Barandas