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Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Academico Viseu — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitano Évora 1911
Lusitano Évora 1911
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
9/22/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo Estrela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lusitano Évora 191131%
×Draw24%
Academico Viseu44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.33
Academico Viseu
1.62

Academico Viseu creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.57
Academico Viseu
2.10

allows per match

Lusitano Évora 1911
1.14
Academico Viseu
1.10

finishing

Lusitano Évora 1911+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano Évora 1911 ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lusitano Évora 1911 or draw
56%
Lusitano Évora 1911 or Academico Viseu
76%
Draw or Academico Viseu
69%

Winning margin

Lusitano Évora 1911 wins by 2+
14%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lusitano Évora 1911 1+ goals
74%
Lusitano Évora 1911 2+ goals
38%
Lusitano Évora 1911 3+ goals
15%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
80%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
48%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lusitano Évora 1911 (draw refunded)
42%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano Évora 1911 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano Évora 1911 attack 1.57 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Academico Viseu attack 2.10 + Lusitano Évora 1911 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lusitano Évora 1911 scores more
31%
level
24%
Academico Viseu scores more
44%

Academico Viseu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Academico Viseu

Lusitano Évora 1911 and Academico Viseu drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Estrela in Évora.