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Lusitânia vs Vitoria Setubal — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Lusitânia
Lusitânia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
6/1/2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 6Campo de Jogos de São Mateus da Calheta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lusitânia57%
×Draw24%
Vitoria Setubal19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia
1.67
Vitoria Setubal
0.83

Lusitânia creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lusitânia
2.33
Vitoria Setubal
1.00

allows per match

Lusitânia
0.67
Vitoria Setubal
1.00

finishing

Lusitânia+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lusitânia or draw
81%
Lusitânia or Vitoria Setubal
76%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
43%

Winning margin

Lusitânia wins by 2+
32%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lusitânia 1+ goals
81%
Lusitânia 2+ goals
50%
Lusitânia 3+ goals
23%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
56%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
20%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia (draw refunded)
76%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia attack 2.33 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.00 + Lusitânia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lusitânia scores more
57%
level
24%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
19%

Lusitânia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lusitânia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round: Lusitânia 2–1 Vitoria Setubal

Lusitânia beat Vitoria Setubal 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Jogos de São Mateus da Calheta in Angra do Heroísmo.