Lusitânia 2–2 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

Lusitânia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting CP B

Derick 79'

Jefer Gunjo 32'

Rafael Nel 83'

Luís Gomes 45+2' (pen)

1/25/2025

Liga 3 · Round 18Estádio João Paulo II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lusitânia36%

×Draw28%

Sporting CP B36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LusitâniaExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.21

Lusitânia

1.20

Sporting CP B

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 58 away

1.14

creates per match

1.14

1.29

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Lusitânia

1.14

Sporting CP B

1.14

allows per match

Lusitânia

1.29

Sporting CP B

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lusitânia+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lusitânia or draw

64%

Lusitânia or Sporting CP B

72%

Draw or Sporting CP B

64%

Winning margin

Lusitânia wins by 2+

15%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lusitânia 1+ goals

70%

Lusitânia 2+ goals

34%

Lusitânia 3+ goals

12%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

70%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

34%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia (draw refunded)

50%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia attack 1.14 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + Lusitânia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lusitânia scores more

36%

level

28%

Sporting CP B scores more

36%

Lusitânia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lusitânia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Gunjo

30'

H. Arreiol

32'

Jefer Gunjo

36'

Marlon Júnior← Bruno Ramos

45'

45+1'

45+2'

Luís GomesPenalty

61'

Celso Sidney← Jefer Gunjo

70'

Tomás Azevedo← Bavikson Biai

79'

Derick

82'

Flávio Gonçalves← Lucas Anjos

83'

R. Dias

83'

Kauã Oliveira← Luís Gomes

83'

Afonso Moreira← Henrique Arreiol

83'

Rafael Nel

86'

87'

88'

Edu← Jefinho

90'

Lucas Taibo← Manuel Mendonça

Lusitânia

Sporting

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gunjo

Manager: João Cardoso

61'▲Celso Sidney←▼Jefer Gunjo

70'▲Tomás Azevedo←▼Bavikson Biai

88'▲Edu←▼Jefinho

Lusitânia substitutes

SidneyAzevedoEdu

Manager: João Pereira

36'▲Marlon Júnior←▼Bruno Ramos

82'▲Flávio Gonçalves←▼Lucas Anjos

83'▲Kauã Oliveira←▼Luís Gomes

83'▲Afonso Moreira←▼Henrique Arreiol

90'▲Lucas Taibo←▼Manuel Mendonça

Sporting CP B substitutes

JúniorGonçalvesOliveiraMoreiraTaibo